Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submit | petilon's commentslogin

Michael Burry, a hedge fund investor featured in the book “The Big Short” for his predictions on the 2008 financial crisis, said in a Substack discussion last month that any increase in SpaceX’s stock after its I.P.O. would “be on hype and technicals.”

Here, “technicals” means technical analysis signals rather than the company’s business fundamentals. In other words, Burry is saying the stock could rise because of chart-based trading, momentum, and market behavior—not because investors think SpaceX is truly worth that much based on revenue, profits, or other fundamentals.

How long can the hype be maintained? TSLA is still maintaining its hype, judging by its P/E ratio.


Technical Analysis is Astrology, and Burry has predicted 17 of last the last 2 stock market crashes.

> Astrology

Exactly, but there are people out there who buy stocks based on technical analysis. It can have an effect if enough people act on it's "signals".


The hype already starts with the SpaceX SEC filing. According to it, its addressable market is $28.5 trillion, of which $26.5 trillion are AI. This means that every human being who owns a computer on this planet (1.75 billion) would need to spend (on average) over $15.000 on xAI products.

>> that every human being who owns a computer on this planet (1.75 billion) would need to spend over $15.000 on xAI products.

Current US national debt is approximately $39.22 trillion. As we achieve a zombie movie, level of collective madness, lets take all this into the last degree.

Nationalize SpaceX, and with this bright obvious future described on the prospect lets pay US debt :-) Pay US retirement benefits pensions in token credits, pensioners can resell, make an options market for tokens. I am sure Robinhood will open you a margin account for that?

Lets open a futures markets for food goods grown up on SpaceX Asteroids, as they will have free solar energy. They can grow them three times faster than on Earth...

To quote Ron Baron yesterday on CNBC, we are all going to earn hundreds of billions....


Yes indeed.

While this would be conceivable if some future AI gets good enough to actually replace 100% of global paid labour currently done by using a computer, the reference class I have here is that Wikipedia is definitely not valued at [number of people online] * [peak cost of Encyclopaedia Britannica].

Economic displacement on that scale breaks the valuation.


> would need to spend over $15.000 on xAI products.

For perspective - that’s 12.5 years of Tesla FSD subscriptions. I think there are probably about that much cars out there.


Technicals are the star signs of stock market.

Funny, the European Central Bank just made life even harder, by raising interest rates purely on that, and the FED is preparing to do the same...

Fed is not raising rates because of technicals. It’s because of economic numbers. The two aren’t the same.

At the essence they are the same, if you think a bit about it.

they literally are not.

Looking forward to the explanation...

It’s not our responsibility to provide counter arguments. You expressed that the two fundamentally different things are the same “in essence”. It’s your responsibility to define the two and explain how they are the same first.

...and here I was hoping for yours.

Tesla definitely is floating down slowly worldwide with hype when it finally crashes just don’t be left holding the bag. 2026 will be another year downward.

I guess now a lot of Elon fans change from Tesla to Spacex.

[flagged]


The market will stay irrational for longer than Michael Burry will stay correct.

Rising inflation at home forced Trump's hand.

No, invading Iran without a proper plan or goal forced his hand. This was a strategic mistake from Day 1.

Iran hasn't agreed to that. United States agrees to allow Iran to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium on Iranian soil under a future comprehensive agreement.

Jep, it's not exactly a clear agreement. I agree.

Details here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-says-draft-us-d...

Key bullets:

What Iran gets:

* The U.S. agrees to release $25 billion of Iran’s frozen assets, including via direct cash transfers, cooperation among regional countries, and financial credit lines.

* Washington, in coordination with its regional allies, would prepare a reconstruction and development plan for Iran, to be negotiated and agreed with Tehran within 60 days.

What the US gets:

* Tehran agrees that it will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons.

* Pending a final agreement, Iran would maintain the current status of its nuclear programme, refraining from further uranium enrichment and expansion of nuclear facilities.

* The United States agrees to allow Iran to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium on Iranian soil under a future comprehensive agreement.

* Iran’s nuclear programme, uranium enrichment activities and mechanisms for handling its stockpile of highly enriched uranium would be negotiated within 60 days of the memorandum and addressed in a final agreement.


This is nothing significantly different from the Obama P5+1:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_nuclear_deal


other than $300B war reparations

And the 2700 (regime number) to 30,000 dead Iranians seeking freedom from Islamic religious theocracy who Trump urged to come out and told help was on the way. I hate how much we just betray people who trust us and just want freedom. We betrayed the people after the fall of the Soviet Union who trusted us and said 'OK we will join you'. We betrayed so many Afghans. We betrayed Canada and Denmark. I hate this shit.

Some of the brave people who tried to fight for freedom over Islamic theocracy, trusted in Trumps words help is on the way, and lost their lives. Trump (America) spent their lives as well: https://www.bbc.com/persian/resources/idt-c005edd8-7204-4c74...


Autocracy thrives when there is an enemy to point to. If Iran is integrated into the west it is likely to become less theological and more about just doing business just like China has become more capitalist oriented after Nixon detente.

So don’t give up hope. The carrot in these cases is better than the stick.


Gaza hasn’t got its $10b funding yet so do you really think Iran will get $300B? And remember most of the fund are just confiscated Iranian funds anyhow.

The funds that are confiscated are the 25b of released frozen assets. I do think that the US will uphold its agreements, as it absolutely should.

If the US and allies didn't want to spend the 300b they should've stuck with the existing agreement that didn't include 300b in repairs.


What they also get: lifting of international sanctions: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-france-germany-italy...

Looks like a total strategic victory for Iran. They are the regional power now that has to be taken serious by the international community. Their international standing has improved compared to before the war. This is also bad news for Israel.

Isn't the article failing to document the $300B that the US has to give Iran? I cannot fathom how this will be acceptable to any American. The US doesn't have money to give food and healthcare benefits to its own deserving people but it has money for Iran. Also, for the longest time, Trump criticized Obama for giving $1.7B to Iran, and now he wants to give 170x more.

Obama did t pay Iran, they returned the $400m they stole with interest.

There was zero obligation to pay $1.3B in interest. Anyway, the parent comment was not a complaint about Obama.

Its a show of good faith though.

I remember very well Republican figures attacking Obama for sending "pallets of cash" to Iran. It was giving Iran's own money back to them, so will they react similarly to Trump making the same deal?

For the record, the $300B are not Iran's own money.

US just gonna trust Iran regarding their nuclear program?

No trust or guessing need in that case, Iran will only pause their nuclear program, maybe not even that.


Iran gained international credibility by adhering strictly to the JCPOA, even long after the Trump admin broke it. I doubt they will squander that by not adhering to whatever deal they negotiate next.

Following the rules got them bombed, so why would they make that mistake again?

It's a good question, but Iran has a new weapon now: The Strait of Hormuz. Maybe that's enough leverage that they retain that they will stop their nuclear program for a while.

The Straight of Hormuz isn't new, though. IIUC Iran did exactly what war gamers would have expected them to do.

It seems to me that demonstrated leverage actually is different from theoretical leverage. I do think that is a crucial difference.

Its not about nukes. Its about controlling the oil supply to squeeze China. China controls rare earths so they can put the squeeze on the USA. To counter that USA wants to control the world's oil supply.

Nordstream (Russia), Venezuela, Iran.


So basically, what we had before Trump started this stupid war at Bibi's behest.

Well, except for the tens of billions we spent, and the $324 billion we’re giving Iran, and also our ability to exert any force on the world.

don't forget, you know, all of the people who died

Oh, yep, them too.

Also, the u.s. makes Israel stop destroying Lebanon. Trump is already pressing Israel on this. Iran will come across as Lebanon's saviors.

Trump hasn’t (so far) demonstrated the ability to stop Israel from bombing and invading Lebanon, so I’m not sure what we can hope will change before Netanyahu leaves office.

There's a theory that BB is the bad cop, USA the good cop. USA lets BB do the dirty work and gets the blame. Every time there's a pending "deal" with Iran, BB skuttles it by attacking Lebanon or Gaza etc. What BB does is with USA's blessing. USA doesn't want a deal with Iran. USA wants control of the oil and Iran regime toppled.

It's ultimately about controlling the world's oil supplies to put the squeeze on China.


That doesn’t hold water to me because Trump looks foolish whenever Israel violates the ceasefire, and Trump isn’t strategic or forward-thinking enough to let himself look weak for an ulterior motive. He’s never done it before.

We also have very credible leakers from within the Situation Room now, so we’ll find out a lot more soon.


Presumably there's the tacit acceptance that Iran would use that as an excuse to continue funding proxies and launching occasional missile attacks. A return to the status quo ante.

Iran seems to believe that their negotiating position will get better and better as time goes on. I'm not sure if they're right, but the terms they got Trump to agree to certainly indicate that they are. From that perspective, their current position regarding Lebanon makes sense. The more Israel attacks Lebanon, the more concessions Iran is able to extract from the US in their negotiations in exchange for not resuming the war. It's clear at this point that the only realistic outcome of the war is a negotiated settlement with Iran, so all resuming the fighting would do is kick the can down the road to a point where Iran's position is even better and the US's position is even worse.

Haaretz reports that Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon is not part of the deal.[1]

Hezbollah reports they're currently fighting an Israeli attack.[2]

So, for now, Israel vs. Lebanon is still on.

Israel's internal politics are confused right now. Times of Israel: "With Trump’s Iran deal, the October 7 wars are over. Israel really has no idea what to do next" [3] The haredim are rioting because some draft dodgers were arrested. Elections are coming up. Netanyahu is struggling to stay in power. (Like Trump, he faces trials once out of power.)

[1] https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/lebanonnews/2026-06...

[2] https://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/320711-hezbollah-attacks...

[3] https://www.timesofisrael.com/


> Iran will come across as Lebanon's saviors.

"Come across as", as much as I despise Iran's regime, it seems like it is de facto the only country actually doing anything other than strong words for Lebanon.

Too bad the US blunder happened too late for Gaza and Palestine.


arguably, Israel won't stop, and it will tank the deal. It already has set it back a few times.

Just a minor setback of killing Irans negotiators several times.

> Tehran agrees that it will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons.

I wouldn't do that if I were Iran. Having nukes is the only thing that somewhat protects you from being trampled on by the US whenever the weather is right.


So basically the US is in a worse position than before the war. Expected, but still dumb and disappointing. (Par for the course for Trump.)

And of course all that sweet, sweet reconstruction/redevelopment money is going to go to Trump's buddies.


It looks like Iran and Trump has made a deal to rob the American tax payer together.

[deleted]


Iran didn’t insist on enrichment for weapons. They had verifiably stopped and then Trump threw away the deal where they agreed to stop. This is 100% Trump’s fault, from start to finish.

How so? Trump Claims Strait Will be ‘Permanently Toll Free’ Under Agreement With Iran (NYT headline).

Iranians have said they cannot charge a "toll" according to international law, but they can charge a "fee". Charging a fee for maintanance, environment or security is fine, so it will be just a different branding to the "toll". Personally I think they should charge an environmental fee with the amount of traffic going through there.

https://www.dawn.com/news/2007544/cannot-impose-tolls-on-str...


They will never charge such a fee, they will however charge a fee and name it "environmental fee".

If I understand 'jeffbee correctly, I think they mean that Iran now has practical evidence that it can gum up the strait and therefore extract political concessions from it, even if they don't literally result in tolling.

(In other words, every barrel of oil that passes through the straight will now have an $X risk surcharge on it, whether or not that surcharge ends up in Iran's coffers.)


Trump also said he would refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve "right to the top" in 6 weeks and, instead, emptied it to its lowest level ever. He also said foreign investment in the United States would rise to 22 trillion dollars, but instead total foreign investment weakened to below $300 billion in 2025. Oh, and he also said tariffs were cutting the deficit by 25%, while he instead managed the deficit to a slightly higher level, even before counting the Iran War.

If NYT's source is his tweet[1], he "authorize[s] the toll free opening of the strait", not claiming Iran agreed to it.

[1] https://old.reddit.com/r/trumptweets/comments/1u5xpoe/061426...


The persistent rumour about this deal process is that Iran will charge "environmental fees".

Trump says "The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete." The deal opens the Strait of Hormuz to all, while leaving the thorniest nuclear issues for another day.

So basically the same as when the war started.


Slightly worse by the sounds of it

Same, minus the people who died.

More cash with Iran now

It is not lies if Mr. Kennedy actually believes vaccines are harmful. Idiot, yes. Liar, no.

Sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from malice.

Nice, but there is no LICENSE file in the github: https://github.com/royalbhati/sqltoerdiagram

The chatgpt link doesn't work.


Religion is just an example. Don't dwell on it.

Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: